Social Tipping Points

By Tim Nijssen, GAP Intern.

Climate change and tipping points are two terms which are very often used in the same sentence. But what are we talking about when we use these terms?

This blog post will explain what (social) tipping points are, and how they are relevant in the fight against climate change.

Our planet consists of many different ecosystems. These ecosystems range from the Amazon rainforest to the life around plants in our back garden. They are a dynamic balance able to handle a lot of pressure before falling. But when the stress put on these ecosystems becomes too big, they will end up reinforcing the process of change.

Some examples of such natural tipping points:

When a lake receives excessive nutrients (like nitrogen or phosphorus from agricultural runoff), it can reach a tipping point where algae blooms occur. The lake may remain clear and healthy until a critical level of nutrient input is surpassed, leading to rapid water quality degradation.
Arctic sea ice reflects sunlight, keeping the region cool. As ice melts due to warming, less sunlight is reflected and more is absorbed by the darker surface, accelerating further melting.
Once the atmosphere’s average temperature rises by 2.0 degrees Celsius or more, the earth’s permafrost areas will start to melt (1).This will cause the release of a huge amount of methane into the atmosphere, speeding climate change up even more.

These tipping points are Climate tipping points. Tipping points are scientific concepts, and often hard to grasp. Yet, they are not the only tipping points relevant to the combat of climate change. Social tipping points are just as important in countering climate change.

A social tipping point is a point in a social system where a small change can trigger rapid changes in society. This often leads to a completely different state of the social system.

A clear example of this is the introduction of mobile phones in our lives. Around 30 years ago, a mobile phone was new, unnecessary for most people, and only a handful of people owned one. Fast forward to now, not having a mobile phone is unthinkable, especially in the modern, western world. Somewhere in these 30 years, a social tipping point occurred. From that moment onwards, having a mobile phone was normal, rather than something innovative.

The diffusion of Innovation

There is a theory which explains this phenomenon. This theory is called the Diffusions of Innovations by Everett Rogers. (2)

Rogers classifies the human population into five different groups, as seen in figure 1. The innovators are willing to take risks when a new innovation appears in the market. This small percentage of the population are trendsetters for the others. The second group are the early adopters. Just as the innovators, they are eager to try out new things and often have some sort of pre-possessed knowledge about this innovation. These early adopters play a key role in shifting attention towards this innovation. The early majority is a fan of following a trend, but prefer to wait before they decide to buy said innovation. When this group follows the innovators and early adopters, the innovation becomes accepted. The late majority is late to trends and only adopts the new innovation once its use is proven to work. The late majority wait, until they know the innovation is trustworthy. Last but not least, there are the laggards. This small group of a population is often resistant to change and innovation, both in a conscious or an unconscious way. This group will often still go over the bridge and adapt to this innovation.

After the early adopters embody this innovation, a strange event occurs. The innovation’s popularity will increase exponentially. The early majority embraces this innovation and increases the ripple effect. What happens? A tipping point occurs.

The diffusion of innovation model is popular in marketing strategies of big companies. Yet, this model can also play a key role in understanding how we act on climate change. How we can is explained later on in this article.

In fact, the Diffusion of Innovation model is not the only model that can help us understand our motives and values on climate change. Models such as GAPs Amoeba model of societal change give us great insight.

To read about the Amoeba model of societal change, click here

Behaviour change will become system change

The diffusion of innovation model has been around for well over fifty years. It not only has found its way into marketing strategies, but also in sociology. And it is also relevant for our work at GAP. For us, the question is: How can we use this model to help the earth and combat excessive climate change?

Let’s take a look at something that is relatively new, good for the environment, rising in popularity, but still frowned upon by some people: eating vegetarian. Reducing your meat intake can save a large amount of CO2 emissions and is good for the planet. This ‘innovation’ is relatively new in western societies, where being vegetarian was rarely seen twenty to thirty years ago. Yet, about a decade ago, a shift started happening. Restaurants and food producers started to offer vegetarian options to the public. As a consequence, more people gained knowledge and options about vegetarianism. This, in turn, boosted the popularity of eating vegetarian.

Other examples of such a rapid change in values and behaviour in society include the abolition of slavery, the rise of anti-smoking legislation, the introduction of seat belts in cars, increases in recycling and the decline of single use plastics.

In all of these examples, a critical turning point occurred; a social tipping point. These social tipping points were reached through a mix of activism and pioneering, causing other people to join forces, and work together towards the same goal.

The advocacy done over decades eventually changed the societal norm, and ultimately national and international policies.

To bring this back to the global scale, there is about 16 percent of a population needed to achieve a social tipping point (3). This number shows the potential in choosing decisions over others for the sake of the planet. Just imagine what we can achieve if 18% of earth’s population was conscious of the effect everyone has. Small decisions add up over time. The diffusion of innovation model shows how important those small decisions are.

In the case of climate change, it is not one single thing we need to change. What we need is a systemic change. We need to distance ourselves from fossil fuels; an economy based on the assumption of unlimited resources; conventional food systems; and much, much more. By achieving a social tipping point in any of the above mentioned examples, we can accelerate transitions in other critical areas. This can create a ripple effect, causing the strive for a greener world to rise significantly.

A question that often rises from this debate is: But why do I feel alone in battling climate change?

It is very normal to sometimes feel alone in this battle, and it is often hard to see anyone do anything. The news is filled with climate catastrophes and scandals, and you only ever seem to hear bad news. However, a lot is happening under the radar. There are many like-minded people who work towards a greener future, but they are often hard to see.

The people who innovate often seem invisible, not talked about, or not heard enough. Yet, many like-minded individuals, communities and organisations are working towards a greener future.

The climate is changing because of our destructive, unsustainable ways: a social tipping point is urgently needed. We, as humans – particularly those in rich countries – need to improve our ways. Rogers’ model gives us that extra bit of insight into how we can improve and change. It shows where our innovations are currently and how we can progress. Not only progress forward in time, but forward in sustainability.

Eventually, like in every major innovation, the norm will turn the value and everyone will join the innovation.

Action is urgent, you can start contributing to a better world today. Participate in local initiatives, encourage others to live more sustainably, and advocate for systemic change.
What will you do to turn the norm?

Sources

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